Support for California’s One‑Time Billionaire Tax Falls to 42% Amid Heavy Opposition Spending

As the campaign entered its closing stage, California voters trimmed their support for Proposition 40—a one‑time 5 % tax on the state’s richest residents—from a slim 52 % majority down to merely 42 %.

The change follows a concerted push by a group of tech titans and other ultra‑wealthy contributors who have injected over $379 million into a unified campaign to block the initiative. Those funds finance TV commercials, online messaging and ground‑level organizing designed to convince swing voters that the levy would threaten employment and the state’s economic expansion.

First floated in 2021, Proposition 40 would impose a one‑off 5 % charge on the net assets of Californians whose holdings surpass $1 billion. Supporters claimed the proceeds could bankroll affordable housing, schooling and climate programs, whereas critics warned it would push capital out of California and establish a punitive model for taxing wealth.

Recent polling by a nonpartisan university research center shows the public now divided: 42 % backing the measure, 45 % against, and the rest undecided. Experts link the waning approval to an uptick in ads portraying the tax as punitive and likely to spark a wider departure of tech companies and venture capital.

State authorities have yet to confirm if the levy will make the ballot, though the governor’s office has indicated a willingness to revisit the idea in upcoming legislative sessions. Should Proposition 40 be turned down, legislators might look to other revenue options—like tweaking corporate tax rates or imposing fresh fees on top‑earning individuals—to plug California’s persistent budget gaps.