U.S. Regulators Launch Three Fresh Investigations into Polymarket, Covering Biden Pardons and Iran Conflict Bets

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced that it is pursuing three new, previously unpublicized probes into trading on the crypto‑driven prediction platform Polymarket, zeroing in on bets linked to possible presidential pardons, the current Iran conflict, and purported insider trading at Google.

Polymarket lets participants wager on real‑world event outcomes and falls within CFTC authority since a large portion of its contracts are deemed binary options. Although the regulator has been watching the site since it appeared, these newly disclosed probes represent the first instance of distinct cases targeting particular political and corporate subjects.

The initial two inquiries focus on market stances tied to two prominent political issues: the prospect of President Joe Biden granting pardons during the forthcoming holiday period and the chance of a significant escalation in the Iran‑United States standoff. As WIRED’s obtained documents reveal, the CFTC is examining if participants held undisclosed information that might have swayed the odds and whether any market manipulation took place.

A third investigation broadens the focus beyond politics, scrutinizing a set of Polymarket transactions that seem to line up with internal Google developments. Regulators are evaluating whether traders might have leveraged confidential corporate information, essentially using the prediction market as a channel for insider trading.

These probes come as crypto‑based prediction markets face heightened scrutiny for their lack of transparency and capacity to spread misinformation. By targeting particular contracts, the CFTC seeks to delineate how current securities regulations pertain to such platforms and to discourage the exploitation of insider information for speculative gain.

Although the CFTC has not disclosed any enforcement measures yet, its comments indicate the inquiries remain active and could lead to sanctions if breaches are verified. Market analysts observe that this reflects a tougher regulatory posture toward digital‑asset markets and could push Polymarket and comparable platforms to bolster compliance, increase transparency, and strengthen data‑access safeguards.